This is a guide to the horse racing stats email that we send each day, which picks out some trends from the day’s races.
These are not tips or strategies in their own right. They are another weapon in your arsenal to ensure you’re fully informed and have a well-rounded picture to plan your trading day.
First things first, if you’re unfamiliar with some of the terminology used in the email, for example “DOB”, “TROB”, “Beaten Fav”, etc, you’ll find a glossary in the email to explain all the terms used:
To give you an idea of how to use these, let’s use “dobbing” as an example. “DOB” stands for “Double or bust”, which means planning your entry and exit prices so that your expected return is double your stake.
So, if you back £10 at odds of 10.0, the target price for your lay bet will be 5.0. This will ensure you are returned £20. Your net profit will therefore be £10.
It’s a popular horse racing strategy because it’s very straightforward to execute.
Let’s combine this information with other data to find something we might want to trade.
In this Lingfield 14:02 race, there is a horse called “Aramis Grey” and this horse stands out as a potential “DOB” trade:
Here’s why:
- It has dobbed in 7 of its last 10 runs (70%). To break-even, we would need a strike rate of 50%, so this is encouraging
- It was a beaten favourite last time out, so it could inherently be a strong runner and we may get a half-decent entry price due to its recent loss
- It’s already won over this combination of course and distance, so we know it can perform in these conditions
- It’s been moved down a class since its last race, so in theory it is now racing against easier opposition
There is, of course, a wealth of other information outside of the information provided in the email that you may wish to consider before actually entering a trade.
You might want to check how far off the pace the horse was in that last race where it was the beaten fave, or what percentage of rivals it actually beat in that race. You may want to check the pace styles of the other runners in the upcoming race before feeling confident that it will out-pace its rivals again. You may want to consider the draw of the horse in this upcoming race.
All of this and more can be found in our horse racing software which, if you’re not already a member, you can learn more about by clicking the button below:
Having fully informed myself, I still like the look of this trade.
Time To Trade!
So, as explained, we want to back Aramis Grey for £10 and then lay it for £20 at the target exit price (which, for a DOB, will be half of the entry price).
This will give us a hedged profit of £10 regardless of the outcome of the race.
You could do this entirely pre-race if you wanted to, or take the BSP and lay the horse in-running.
In this case, just before the off, this horse was trading at around 9.6. So we would back £10 at 9.6:
We then know that we need to lay £20 at odds of 4.8:
Note that the potential profit on our back bet is £86 and the liability of our lay bet is £76, leaving us with a guaranteed £10 profit, regardless of which horse wins the race (as long as our lay bet is matched!):
Let’s use the Lightspeed Stats racecards to see how low the horse traded in running:
Aramis Grey came second, only beaten by 1 length. So it ran strongly, as predicted, and reached 4.8 in running – a perfect DOB!
So, you can back a horse, have it lose, and still make money. Don’t you just love Betfair trading?
As explained earlier, these highlights are not tips, simply bitesize pieces of information to feed into your trading plan.
Lightspeed Stats is here to give you the tools to find your OWN successful trade. We hope this daily email supports that endeavour.
Good luck. If you have any questions or need any help, just get in touch!
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